10/05/2016
All the elections in Kerala have been fought between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), who have ruled the state alternately, riding on a nearly characteristic anti-incumbent wave. But this time, the Bharatiya Janata Party is bent on throwing a spanner into the wheel.
At least, that's what they are claiming.
The BJP President Amit Shah had taken a keen interest in last year's local body elections in the state, and his party had duly increased it vote-share and won a considerable number of seats — they are the ruling party in Palakkad Municipality and the opposition in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation.
The party will be pinning its hopes on the more than 3 percent increase in vote-share in the 2015 local body elections. While the BJP's vote-share in the 2014 parliament elections was 10.83 percent, it crossed over 14 percent in the local body elections last year.
Though the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has the most number of sakhas — 4,500 — in Kerala, the BJP hasn't been able to win an assembly seat ever in the state. But the last Lok Sabha election saw signs of a breakthrough. In Thiruvananthapuram constituency, veteran leader and former union minister for state O.Rajagopal had almost begun celebrating his victory over Shashi Tharoor before the Congress lawmaker rallied in the last round and managed to cross the line with his nose just ahead of Rajagopal's.
For the UDF, this is the best of times and the worst of times.
No election in the recent past has pitchforked caste, sex and scams to the campaign forefront as potently as this one. Even before the polls were announced, the UDF had lost the veteran K.M. Mani, finance minister and the leader of its key ally, Kerala Congress (M), to 'bar bribery' scandal. The Excise Minister K. Babu escaped ouster by the skin of his teeth. And, the Chief Minister Oommen Chandy has been determinedly surviving on a cliffhanger over an ugly but highly destructive solar-cum-sex and corruption scandal.
Multi-pronged in-fights between the main factions of the Congress 'I' and 'A' groups — and between the smaller groups in Kerala Congress, which has a history of organic splits, have dripped blood on the carpet in the UDF camp. The I-A tug of war had snowballed into a veritable stalemate in New Delhi while preparing the list of candidates, and even the Congress High Command struggled to find an amicable solution to the standoff between Chandy and V.M. Sudheeran, president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee. While Sudheeran demanded the exclusion of the 'tainted' ministers from the list, Chandy stood his ground firmly for his cabinet colleagues and had even threatened to not contest. Under pressure, the High Command had to give in. Sudheeran had to take the setback in his chin and sheepishly declare that he would obey whatever the High Command asked him to do. But the cracks which have come to the fore could only become conspicuous in trying situations in the coming days. The wise say, 'Crises reveal character.'
While the UDF campaign is hinged on the many development projects that the government has rolled out in the last five years, the scale of corruption charges levelled against its ministers and ministerial staff is hard to nullify. The tagline of the UDF campaign is the need for a continuation of rule to fulfil the developmental vision. But given the anti-incumbent tendency of the Kerala voters, the strategic alliance that NDA has entered into with Bharat Dharma Jana Sena and the pitched battle the LDF is waging against the alleged widespread corruption in the last five years, it may prove too steep for the UDF to conquer. The chances of the UDF also depend on any substantial increase in vote-share from Muslims and Christians, and how far the Nair and Ezhava communities will back the BJP.
Meanwhile, the LDF is hopeful it can come back to power as part of the run of play in Kerala assembly polls even though they themselves are beset with factional issues. The nonagenarian former chief minister, V.S. Achuthanandan still enjoys huge popularity among the general public while his in-party adversary Pinarayi Vijayan, the likely chief ministerial candidate, has already made statements in preparation to assume power. The springboard of LDF campaign is their promise that they 'will right all wrongs' committed by the UDF and clean up the Augean stables that the state has become. There is a large section of public opinion and pre-poll surveys which believe that it is now the turn of the LDF, thanks largely to the widespread corruption charges against the UDF stakeholders.
Despite the internal issues, the LDF takes heart in last year's local body elections where the front bagged majority in 12 of the 14 districts. But their victory in this month's assembly elections depends on how effectively they can iron out the issues such as factional feud, estrangement of coalition partners, involvement in political violence, losing public interest in their agitations and the absence of social movement for worthy causes.
So far Kerala has seen mainly bipolar contests between the UDF and the LDF. But this time, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to get at least a toe space in the state. Even in the nationwide surge of the saffron wave in the last Lok Sabha polls, the party couldn't win a seat in Kerala. But the BJP top-brass is proactive and determined to somehow clinch a win this time. That's exactly why they've entered into an electoral understanding with the BDJS, which represents the largest single Hindu community, Ezhava, which has traditionally supported the LDF. Firebrand Adivasi leader C.K. Janu of Gothramahasabha has also joined hands with the BJP, saying both the UDF and the LDF have taken the tribals for a ride.
Caste and community have always played a deciding role in elections in Kerala irrespective of political ideologies. Over the years, both the UDF and the LDF have fielded candidates according to the caste and communal strength and sensitivities. While the UDF has sewn up a religion-based alliance of Upper-Caste Hindus, Muslims and Christians and wooed the votes of both Ezhavas and Nairs, the LDF, despite its Communist garb, has also chosen candidates according to caste-based demography.
Though no front has ruled Kerala in successive terms since 1977, the 2011 assembly saw the LDF nearly bucking the trend. Out of the 140 seats, the UDF managed to win 72 while the LDF won 68. The UDF had a narrow margin of vote-share (45.8 percent) over LDF (44.9 percent). But the 2001 and 2006 elections had seen clearer mandates. In 2006 the LDF came to power with a 98-42 margin while in 2001 the UDF won 94-46.
Given the present caste-based divide, holding on to their vote-share will be key to an LDF comeback. In the Lok Sabha elections in 2009, even though the party suffered a debacle (four seats out of 20), they had managed 41.89 percent of the votes against UDF's 47.73 percent. In the Assembly elections in 2001, which the UDF won (94-46) with a 45.83 percent vote-share, the LDF got 44.94 percent of votes.
The BJP is combining Shah's strategic acumen and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'podium aura'— he is campaigning in six places — and hopes to make some serious dent in the UDF-LDF facade. The BJP has also dug deep into their pocket for campaigns—they have rolled out 70 video vans across the state to showcase the highlights of its rule elsewhere in the country.
This election also has in the fray a few film stars and directors, journalists and a tainted cricketer. While all the three parties have roped in film stars, the LDF has brought in television journalists M.V. Nikesh Kumar and Veena George, who both say politics is the extension of their fight against corruption. The BJP has fielded cricketer Sreesanth in Thiruvananthapuram constituency.
While Chandy rubbishes any talk of the balance tilting in favor of the LDF and the CPI-M leaders cry foul of a UDF-BJP nexus in some constituencies, senior BJP leaders like Rajagopal are hopeful that it's time for the winds of change in Kerala.
With just a week left for the polls, the UDF has to sweat it out in the blistering summer heat to burn the fat of the alleged corruption and the 'double-headed' LDF has to pack all its power into one punch. But the most interesting thing to watch out is whose meal the BJP will be eating into.
(Cover photo credit: Al Jazeera English via Foter.com / CC BY-SA)